|| 要旨トップ | 目次 |||日本生態学会第59回全国大会 (2012年3月，大津) 講演要旨
一般講演（ポスター発表） P1-107A (Poster presentation)
Species distribution models (SDMs) predicting potential habitats or distributions of wild plants are useful tools for large-scale and long-term impact assessments. There have been fewer studies that used SDMs to predict the impact of climate change on potential habitats of plants in Asia than in western countries. Although spatial data on plant species distributions and environmental factors such as climatic parameters are necessary for modeling, the species distribution data usually constrain such modeling studies. We built models predicting the potential habitats of four Abies species endemic to Japan using species distribution data comprising detailed location records extracted from the Phytosociological Releve Database (PRDB). We also created a model predicting the habitats of Abies nephrolepis, native to East Asia, using ca. 20-km mesh distribution data digitized from a map of its distribution in China. The potential habitat projections for the four Japanese Abies species at a ca. 1-km resolution under current and future climate conditions indicated that three species presently found at high elevations on mountains would lose large areas of habitat. The projection for A. nephrolepis at ca. 20-km resolution indicated that this species would gain more habitat area in the north but lose habitats in lowlands of northeastern China.