| 要旨トップ | 目次 | 日本生態学会第59回全国大会 (2012年3月,大津) 講演要旨
ESJ59/EAFES5 Abstract


一般講演(ポスター発表) P2-019A (Poster presentation)

Predicting potential habitat of Abies koreana in Korea at laster glacial maximum, present and future climates

*Yun, J. H.(NIBR), Nakao, K.(FFPRI), Park, C. H.(NIBR), Lee, B. Y.(NIBR), Tanaka, N.(FFPRI)

Abies koreana is endemic species of subarctic conifer forest in Korea. However, it is not well known that the controlling factors of the species and shifting their ranges by climate change. The aims of this study were to identify the climatic conditions controlling the distribution of A. koreana and to detect the potential habitats (PHs) under the multi hypothetical climate change scenarios on the species in Korea. The relationship between the distributions of the species and climate variables were explored using the Generalized Additive Model. As the results, the area of PHs were predicted to dramatically decrease followed by decreasing the precipitation of warmest quarter and the minimum temperature of coldest month. The PHs of A. koreana was predicted to occur in Mt. Jiri and Mt. Deogyu in Korean Peninsula, and Mt. Halla in Is. Jeju under the current conditions, which was similar to the actual distributions. Under the glacial climate conditions, the PHs of the species was predicted to occur only in the coast of the southern part of Korean Peninsula and Is. Jeju. Thus, the ice-age refugia of the species were geographically close to their current distributions. In contrast, the PHs of the species under the climate warming conditions was predicted to vanish in the south range limits.


日本生態学会