|| 要旨トップ | 目次 |||日本生態学会第59回全国大会 (2012年3月，大津) 講演要旨
一般講演（ポスター発表） P2-314A (Poster presentation)
Species distribution modeling (SDM) is now widely applied to predict potential habitats of plant species based on constrained environmental factors. In this study, we used SDM to assess effects of climate change on dominant coniferous species distributions in Taiwan. Our second objective was to find proper sites for long term monitoring based on the vulnerability evaluation of current habitats. Classification and regression tree (CART) was used to build models with four bio-climatic variables on Abies kawakamii, Tsuga chinensis var. formosana, and two Chamaecyparis species. The model results were projected into current climate and two different climate change scenarios in 2080s to assess potential shift for each species and their ecotones, while the vulnerability assessment based on vegetation map was able to extract vulnerable plots for monitoring candidate sites. Our results show that the boundaries of distribution for each target species will shift upward about 500 to 600 m in 2080s, while their habitats have high differentiation among each other. However, Abies will be more vulnerable than other species under climate change. The vulnerability assessment indicates that the habitats in northern Taiwan are more sensitive than other places to climate change and have highest priority to setup monitoring sites.