|| 要旨トップ | 目次 |||日本生態学会第62回全国大会 (2015年3月、鹿児島) 講演要旨
一般講演（口頭発表） G1-14 (Oral presentation)
Population dynamics are driven by extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting demographic rates. Climate change can be expected to alter demographic rates, but evolutionary change in response to climate change may exaggerate or counteract such changes. We use a 32yr demographic dataset for Ophrys sphegodes, and a 10yr dataset for Plantago lanceolata, to predict 1) how demographic rates will respond to climate change, and 2) how the probabilities of sprouting and flowering will evolve in response. Using adaptive dynamics models that yielded optimal sprouting levels at observed frequencies, we predicted the evolution of sprouting frequency in Ophrys. Plantago is not dormancy-prone, but evolved a greater tendency to flower as well. These evolutionary patterns are on top of ecological patterns, which generally predict increased sprouting and flowering when evolution is not considered. We make the case that such predictions can be increasingly made across all demographic studies, given the reliability of current climatic modeling techniques and evolutionary optimization protocols.