|| 要旨トップ | 目次 |||日本生態学会第62回全国大会 (2015年3月、鹿児島) 講演要旨
一般講演（口頭発表） H1-22 (Oral presentation)
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals around the world. In Japan, FMD outbreak incurred economic damage of a few billion JPY in 2010. Recent several studies have examined the influence of wild animals, including deer and feral pigs, on FMD outbreak using susceptible-latent-infected-recovered (SLIR) automata simulations. They suggested that local population size might serve as a useful indicator of potential outbreak in the monitoring of pre-outbreak stage, but the indicator may still be too coarse because they did not consider animal movements under heterogeneous environments. Here we studied FMD outbreak using the SLIR individual-based simulations to confirm the following hypothesis: incorporating animal movements into the SLIR model improves predictive ability for FMD outbreak under heterogeneous environments, which could help reducing the early monitoring area. In this study, we exemplified FMD outbreak in the deer population in Chiba prefecture where deer movement parameters had been estimated in our earlier study.