|| 要旨トップ | 本企画の概要 |||日本生態学会第64回全国大会 (2017年3月、東京) 講演要旨
シンポジウム S09-4 （Lecture in Symposium）
We analyze a potential link between malaria incidence in the Southern African province of Limpopo and climatological data. Specifically, we use the monthly time series data on temperature, rainfall, Nino 3 index, and Nino 1.2 index, spanning a time period from the beginning of 1998 until the end of 2015. Data analyses are performed using wavelet power spectra, wavelet power cross-spectra, and wavelet coherence, but only after removing the dominant seasonal component from all time series. The results suggest that a spike in malaria incidence in mid-2006 was related to climatological events with periods between 16 and 32 months. A region of statistical significance in all analyzed power spectra is present at the said time moment and periods. This coincidence is confirmed by wavelet power cross-spectra. Wavelet coherence is, for the most part, consistent with the conclusion that malaria incidence and climate are linked, yet a more thorough revision of the results may be necessary. If the link between malaria incidence and climate is confirmed, this research may provide an early warning indicator for deploying malaria preventive measures and thus lowering the basic reproductive number during an outbreak.