|| 要旨トップ | 目次 |||日本生態学会第66回全国大会 (2019年3月、神戸) 講演要旨
一般講演（ポスター発表） P1-049 （Poster presentation）
The forests of tropical Asia are considered to be vulnerable to climate change. Teak (Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable timber species in tropical area. Teak habitats are susceptible to climate change under future scenarios. Predicting future suitable habitat for teak, mainly teak plantation in Java Indonesia, is crucial to develop productive teak plantation. The objective of this preliminary study is to detect important bioclimatic variable for teak and clarify potential impact of future teak plantation area. Presence teak data throughout Java were used to develop ecological niche models (ENM). Bioclimatic variables were gained from the WorldClim database and selected using correlation between variables. To avoid multicollinearity, we used Variation Inflation Factor calculation. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to predict suitable teak plantation areas under current and future climate using Global Circulation Model (GCM) with RCP emission scenarios. The most representative bioclimatic variables for current teak plantations are mean diurnal range, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, precipitation of warmest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Next challenge is to project model with GLM using site index as response variable and bioclimatic as explanatory variable. We discuss teak plantation management planning to mitigate climate change.