|| 要旨トップ | 目次 |||日本生態学会第70回全国大会 (2023年3月、仙台) 講演要旨
一般講演（ポスター発表） P1-176 （Poster presentation）
Rising temperatures are a leading cause of concern to conservation globally. The ecological impacts of climate change have been documented for many species, but the evolution of life history traits is less well understood. The evolution of senescence (an increase in mortality or decrease in fecundity with age) under climate change is even less so. In three shrinking populations of long-lived forbs, climate change is predicted to accelerate the decline. We created generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for major vital rates using demographic data and historical climate forecasts for the regions surrounding the field sites. Using these GLMMs and predicted atmospheric conditions from high-resolution climate projection models, we created matrix projection models for future climate change scenarios. To assess the effects of climate change on the evolution of senescence, we used matrix sensitivity analysis of the deterministic population growth rate to changes in mortality and fecundity. Preliminary results show mortality is predicted to increase across all age-stages, and that previously documented patterns of age-specific mortality and fecundity are more pronounced under climate change. Our analysis predicts the evolution of an important life history trait under multiple climate change scenarios, highlighting the importance of understanding the microevolutionary consequences of climate change.