| 要旨トップ | 目次 | 日本生態学会第67回全国大会 (2020年3月、名古屋) 講演要旨
ESJ67 Abstract


一般講演(ポスター発表) P1-PD-467  (Poster presentation)

Predicting Teak Suitability to Evaluating Potential Plantation Areas under Future Climate Change in Java

*Eko PRASETYO(Universitas Gadjah Mada, University of Tsukuba), Yoshihiko TSUMURA(University of Tsukuba), Ikutaro TSUYAMA(FFPRI), Tetsuya MATSUI(FFPRI)

Teak is one of the most valuable timber species in tropical areas. Indonesia, especially in Java, has large commercial teak plantation areas and becomes the second largest teak plantation areas in the world. Predicting habitat suitability of teak under future climate is crucial for forest management and plantation planning. We developed species distribution models by using GLM (Generalized Linear Model) to examine what are the suitable climatic and soil condition for teak growth in Java and to estimate how much the suitable plantation areas will change under future climate. Bioclimatic and soil data sets were used as explanatory variables, while site index of teak plantation was used as the response variable.  We used two emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), two global climate models (MIROC-ESM-CHEM and HADGEM2-ES), and two projected time periods (2050s and 2070s) to compare the changes in suitable conditions and habitats for teak growth in the future. Differences in predicted series of habitat suitability and reasons why they change will be discussed.


日本生態学会